\u3010\u6458 \u8981\u3011\uff1a\u8bfa\u601d\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7406\u8bba\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4ece\u201c\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u201d\u5230\u201c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u201d\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d, \u8bfa\u601d\u9010\u6e10\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u4ed6\u7684\u201c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u201d\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u53ca\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5-\u5236\u5ea6-\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4f20\u9012\u673a\u5236, \u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u72ec\u5177\u7279\u8272\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f71\u54cd\u5236\u5ea6\u9009\u62e9, \u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b, \u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u975e\u6548\u7387\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5e38\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3010\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u3011\uff1a\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u8fc1;\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56;\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1;\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e;<\/p>\n
\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011\uff1a\u5218\u548c\u65fa\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662<\/p>\n
\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bc4\u8bba 2006,(02),64-68<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u63a2\u8ba8<\/p>\n
\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8ba8\u8bba\u6700\u65e9\u53ef\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u5927\u536b\u2022\u4fdd\u7f57(A.DavidPaul)\u4e8e1975\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6280\u672f\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u65f6\u5e76\u672a\u5f15\u8d77\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u8c22\u6797(ThomasC.Schelling\uff0c1978)\u5728\u300a\u5fae\u89c2\u52a8\u673a\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u4e92\u52a8\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u201d(interactivebehavior)\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u679c\u4e25\u91cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u884c\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6b21\u4f18\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n
20\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5927\u536b\u2022\u4fdd\u7f57\u548c\u963f\u745f(W.B.Arthur)\u7528\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u8fc1\uff0c\u5b83\u624d\u5f15\u8d77\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4fdd\u7f57(1994)\u8ba4\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u540e\u679c\u662f\u6307\uff1a\u5177\u6709\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236(positivefeedback)\u7684\u968f\u673a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4e3a\u67d0\u79cd\u5076\u7136\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6240\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u6cbf\u7740\u4e00\u6761\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\u6216\u8def\u5f84\u4e00\u76f4\u6f14\u5316\u4e0b\u53bb\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u66f4\u4f73\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u5373\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\u8d8b\u5411\u201d(U.Witt\uff0c1993)\u3002\u963f\u745f(1989)\u5219\u628a\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u4e0e\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u504f\u597d\u548c\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u9501\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94(lockin)\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5c0f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e24\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u663e\u793a\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\uff1a\u9996\u5148\u662f\u7528\u4e2d\u5b66\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u88ab\u91c7\u7528\u5f97\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u88ab\u6539\u8fdb\u5f97\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u88ab\u91c7\u7528\u5f97\u8d8a\u591a\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u7f51\u7edc\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u6216\u534f\u8c03\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u5c0f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u7684\u8054\u5408\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u52a3\u7b49\u6280\u672f\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u548c\u9501\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8bfa\u601d(DouglassC.North)\u662f\u4ece\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u8fc1\u9886\u57df\u5f15\u5165\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5236\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4eba\u3002\u7ee7\u4ed6\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7814\u7a76\u5341\u5206\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Stark(1992)\u3001Campbell(1991\uff1b1996\uff1b1997)\u3001Hausner(1995)\u3001Grief(1994\uff1b1997)\u3001Pierson(2000\uff1b2004)\u3001Caroline(2001)\u3001\u9752\u6728\u660c\u5f66(2001)\u548cA.\u7231\u4f26\u2022\u65af\u5bc6\u5fb7(2004)\u7b49\u90fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u6b64\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5927\u591a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1(\u6f14\u5316)\u53d7\u5230\u5236\u5ea6\u9057\u4ea7\u3001\u96c6\u56e2\u8ba8\u4ef7\u8fd8\u4ef7\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u7b49\u8bf8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5236\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u6216\u63ed\u793a\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u673a\u5236\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u76ae\u5c14\u68ee(P.Pierson\uff0c2004)\u7684\u65b0\u8457\u300a\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u6790\u300b\u4e0e\u8bfa\u601d(2005)\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u300b\u90fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u63ed\u793a\u5386\u53f2\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u751f\u6210\u6216\u4f20\u9012\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u9886\u57df\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u4e8c\u3001\u8bfa\u601d\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9<\/p>\n
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\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u8bfa\u601d(1994)\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5f53\u4e8b\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5236\u5b9a\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u5f53\u4e8b\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5219\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5f53\u4e8b\u4eba\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u548c\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u7edf\u3002\u5b66\u4e60\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5fc3\u667a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u590d\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u65e2\u662f\u5fc3\u667a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u53c8\u662f\u201c\u8868\u8c61\u91cd\u8ff0\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4ece\u7279\u6b8a\u5230\u4e00\u822c\u8fdb\u884c\u6982\u62ec\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u91cd\u8ff0\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u521b\u9020\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6e90\u6cc9\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u4eba\u7c7b\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6e90\u6cc9\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bfa\u601d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u8fc7\u7a0b\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6f14\u8fdb\u65b9\u5f0f(\u8bfa\u601d\uff0c1994\uff1b2004)\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u975e\u6548\u7387\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5e38\u6001(\u800c\u975e\u4f8b\u5916)\uff1b\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5386\u6001(non\u2014ergodicity)\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u8bfa\u601d(1997)\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u9501\u4eba\u67d0\u4e00\u5236\u5ea6\u8f68\u9053\uff1b\u6280\u672f\u9501\u5b9a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5982\u5236\u5ea6\u9501\u5b9a\uff0c\u5373(\u6e90\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b89\u6392\u50f5\u5316\u7684)\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u548c\u4e92\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u957f\u671f\u6027\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5931\u7075\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8f6c\u4e09\u3001\u8bfa\u601d\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7b80\u8981\u8bc4\u8ff0<\/p>\n
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